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Ouch. From one perspective, Australia's protracted campaign to organize the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the rights to put on the world's biggest environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next fall.

This won't occur. Instead, the summit known as Cop31 is headed to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a significant disappointment to many people who had hoped organizing the climate carnival could help speed up the country's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been questions that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials really wanted the proposal to be approved. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. This led to stories in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the message being relayed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the administration have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes completely against.

There is little sign the prime minister has viewed UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the best result available.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the conference leader, host and primary coordinator, and Australia – the climate minister – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", managing nearly 200 countries on the matters that the countries actually turn up for – the discussions on how to together address the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the deal had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could collapse before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on global warming.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the global community as having been determined on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. This framework is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is privately arranged to persuade them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's venue had supported the Australian bid.

However, exceptionally, Turkey refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not only by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the heft to confront the oil producers that provided the Turkish government with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Several nations worried about a summit hindered from the top if his administration managed the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was needed. The UN system is imperfect and often disconcerting to watch, but multilateral action has demonstrably made a difference in the battle with climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for increasing carbon-based exports, climate activists who attend international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been asked to lead discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This matters. While some have dismissed the role of a "president of negotiations", specialists from research centers and veteran observers at environmental negotiations assert it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a leader directing proceedings who can listen, build consensus and deliver an ambitious outcome. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the Cop other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unanswered questions. As an illustration, civil society is essential at environmental summits. What, if at all, can the Australian government do to stop a restriction on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this deal looking like the most promising opportunity available to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.