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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, though experts believe the party is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a multi-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is projected to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign focused on topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the largest party yet is shut out of power. But, opponents and experts say that first place does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks could take several months, analysts indicate that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is expected shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.